Mark Serreze attended the "Cryosphere 2022 International Symposium in Ice, Snow and Water in a Warming World", and gave a keynote talk on "The Future of Arctic Sea Ice".  The symposium, held in Reykjavik Iceland from August 16-22, was attended by hundreds of cryospheric scientists and students from around the globe who presented the latest results on changes in our planet''s snow and ice cover and how these changes are affecting the developed world, developing nations and indigenous peoples. The Symposium was hosted by the Icelandic Meteorological Office and numerous international partners.   The formal conference was followed by a three-day excursion to observe, first hand, the rapid shrinkage Iceland's ice caps and glaciers.

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Mark C.  Serreze
Director, National Snow and Ice Data center (NSIDC)
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)
Professor, Department of Geography, University of 欧美口爆视频 Boulder

In Person:
GUGG 205
Apr 1, 2022, 3:30 PM

Or Join Zoom Meeting

Abstract

COP26, the 26^th UN Climate Change Conference, was held in Glasgow, Scotland in autumn 2021. COP stands for Conference of the Parties, the 197 nations that agreed to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992.  It was the first COP since the Paris Agreement of COP21 that parties were expected to strengthen commitments to mitigate climate change.  As a University of 欧美口爆视频 Boulder representative, I and several colleagues had a front row seat to observe the COP process and the activities surrounding the event.  COP26 was a mixed success in terms of commitments. But the event itself, in the midst of the Covid pandemic, with its sea of observers, delegates, NGOs and other interest groups, industry, and protesters from nations and cultures spanning the world, made me realized both how diverse, and how small, our planet really is.    

[video:https://vimeo.com/695077103]

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What will you learn in this specialization? Think different definitions of geographic boundaries of the Arctic, characteristics of the Arctic lands and ocean water, how rising temperatures, declining sea ice, and thawing permafrost are affecting the landscape and its people, and how economies and geopolitics are impacted. For example, did you know that many parts of the Arctic are actually forest? Or that the Greenland Ice Sheet contains about 20 feet of potential sea level rise? Or that Russia has the largest icebreaker fleet in the world, which includes nuclear-powered ships? All this and more is discussed within the specialization!

Professor Serreze serves as director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, which is part of the University of 欧美口爆视频鈥檚 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). He has taught courses in Arctic climate and environment in the Geography department for well over a decade. He first visited the Arctic in the spring of 1982 as a young graduate student, and since then, has made many trips to the region to research snow, ice caps, glaciers, tundra and sea ice. Over the years, he has personally witnessed the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe, as it has transformed from the Arctic of old (that the explorers of the 19th century would have been very familiar with), to a very different place as it rapidly loses snow and ice. Serreze is also the author of, 鈥�,鈥� which describes how his experience as a scientist gave him a front row seat to climate change. 

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Featuring previews of AGU talks by Geography graduate students

Friday, November, 20^th at 12:00PM MDT, 11:00AM PDT, 2:00PM EDT
Add the Zoom link* to your Calendar: Outlook, Google, iCal

Meeting ID: 936 7520 5146
*This particular colloquium is limited to University of 欧美口爆视频 Boulder audience through Zoom authentication.

Water Towers of the West: Where are they and how have they changed?
Katherine Hale

Snow-dominated mountainous regions rely on accumulated snow and snowmelt for water supply, and the storage of water in the snowpack delays and extends the downstream delivery of meltwater through the spring and summer months, when water demand is highest. Climate warming, however, has reduced snowfall across the western United States, reducing the annual snowpack and shifting snowmelt toward earlier in the year. These hydrologic changes alter the timing of surface water inputs (SWI) associated with rainfall and snowmelt and ultimately the catchment and regional hydrologic signatures. In this research, we derive an index of seasonal snowpack water storage, termed the Water Tower Index, which is based on differences in seasonality between precipitation and SWI. We define mountainous water towers as regions where there is significant temporal misalignment between precipitation and SWI, indicating a delay in meltwater production due to water storage in the snowpack. We used output from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model from 1950-2014 to evaluate trends in WTI associated with regional warming. Evaluating the western U.S. by snow fraction, we determined that, on average, areas with an annual average snow fraction of >0.25 have experienced a significant decrease in annual WTI. This suggests that the delay in the timing between falling precipitation and SWI generation is becoming smaller, likely due to changing precipitation phase (snow to rain) and earlier snowmelt, both a product of climate warming. Future changes in WTI have broad implications for water availability and regional annual hydrologic behavior.

Towards an Operational Seasonal Sea Ice Forecast System for the Chukchi Sea
Jed Lenetsky

We utilize statistically-modeled ocean heat and volume transports through the Bering Strait along with additional predictors to create skillful predictions of sea ice retreat and advance dates in the Chukchi Sea, a key region for shipping and other growing economic activities in the Arctic. Inter-annual variability of June and September oceanic volume transports through the strait can be captured using along-strait surface winds and modeled Ekman transports in the Bering and East Siberian Seas. Combining the modeled volume transports with sea surface temperatures in the Bering Sea in turn enables skillful representations of June and September ocean heat transport (OHT) variability. These modeled OHTs, along with the linear trend in retreat and advance dates, explain 65% and 74% of retreat and advance date variance in the Chukchi Sea at one-month leads. Addition of the retreat date anomaly into the advance date model improves the explained variance of the model to 82%. Using only variables initialized July or earlier, we can explain 75% of the ice advance date variance. Forecast skill can be further increased by improving parameterizations of Bering Strait water temperatures, especially in spring and early summer. These findings are significant in offering a path towards operational forecasts of sea ice retreat and advance dates in the Chukchi Sea in the absence of direct observations of OHT from moorings in the Bering Strait.

Regional Trends in Snowpack Cold Content for the Inter-mountain Western United States
Jeffrey Schmidt

Trends for snowpack temperature, density, depth, SWE, and cold content were evaluated for the 1992-2020 winter seasons using the regional Kendall test (RKT) on novel snow-pit data collected from over 50 site locations across the Rocky Mountains, western United States. RKT is a non-parametric test with the proven power of monotonic trend detection in geoscience systems over linear regression by grouping data from certain geographic regions. According to both snow temperature and SWE, the RKT indicates that internal snowpack cold content has shifted toward warming the more massive northern region snowpack and maintaining a colder, less massive snowpack in the southern region. Variations in internal snowpack temperature explained most of the interannual variability in snowpack cold content magnitude in both regions. In the northern region, Thiel Sen鈥檚 slope for snowpack temperature was positive indicating the snowpack was warmer in recent years. Thiel Sens鈥檚 slope is more suitable for hydrological trend detection than ordinary least squares line fit because it is insensitive to outliers and missing values (which are expected in hydrologic systems). Thiel Sen's slope for SWE trend was generally flat in both regions, indicating little detectable change. High variance around the Thiel Sen鈥檚 slope fit for SWE reflects the low correlation that SWE has with cold content interannually. The southern snowpack trend is moderate cooling and the northern snowpack trend is pervasively warmer, which is controlled more by internal snow temperature than SWE. We conclude that northern region snowpack warming promotes less cold content in the future. Measuring and monitoring snow temperature changes is valuable for knowing the spatial-temporal arrival of spring by observing the snowpack in advance of isothermal conditions. Internal snow temperature and SWE data can be useful in multiple fields, including streamflow forecasting, climate change interpretation, and water resource management, among others.

Climate and topographic controls on the variability of snow water equivalent and snowmelt in a continental alpine watershed
Kehan Yang, Keith Musselman, Keith Jennings, Noah P Molotch

Seasonal snowpack is an essential component in the Earth鈥檚 surface hydrological cycle and energy balance. Recent climate warming has caused decreased peak snow accumulation, altered snowmelt rates, and earlier snow disappearance in many mountain ecosystems. Understanding and characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of snow, often reported as snow water equivalent (SWE), is of crucial importance for assessing water availability to surrounding environments. In this study, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the long-term interannual variability of SWE distributions and snowmelt in the alpine Green Lakes Valley located in the 欧美口爆视频 Front Range. We leverage a physically-based energy and mass balance models, satellite observations of Fractional Snow Covered Area (FSCA), and long-term quality controlled daily meteorological data to estimate SWE distribution. Using a 23-year record of SWE distribution (i.e. 1997-2019), we evaluate the impacts of topographic and climate variables on interannual variability of SWE and snowmelt. Specifically, we use a linear regression model to compare metrics of elevation, aspect, slope, wind exposure, vegetation fractional coverage, and air temperature against metrics of SWE variability, including the temporal coefficient of variation in annual maximum SWE, the standard deviation of annual maximum SWE, the range in maximum SWE, maximum and average snowmelt rate, and snow disappearance date. The historical relationships between SWE distribution and topography have the potential to elucidate potential ecosystem response to future changes in snowpack and associated impacts on eco-hydrologic processes.

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This Arctic heat wave has been unusually long-lived. The darkest reds on this map of the Arctic are areas that were more than 14 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in the spring of 2020 compared to the recent 15-year average. Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory

The Arctic heat wave that sent Siberian temperatures soaring to  on the first day of summer put an exclamation point on an astonishing transformation of the Arctic environment that鈥檚 been underway for about 30 years.

As long ago as the 1890s, scientists predicted that  in the atmosphere would lead to a warming planet, particularly in the Arctic, where the loss of reflective snow and sea ice would further warm the region. Climate models have consistently pointed to 鈥溾�� emerging as greenhouse gas concentrations increase.

Well, Arctic amplification is now here in a big way. The Arctic is  of the globe as a whole. When extreme heat waves like this one strike, it stands out to everyone. Scientists are generally reluctant to say 鈥淲e told you so,鈥� but the record shows that we did.

As director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center and an Arctic climate scientist who first set foot in the far North in 1982, I鈥檝e had a front-row seat to watch the transformation.

Arctic heat waves are happening more often 鈥� and getting stuck

Arctic heat waves now arrive on top of an already warmer planet, so  than they used to be.

Western Siberia recorded its  this year, according the EU鈥檚 Copernicus Earth Observation Program, and that unusual heat isn鈥檛 expected to end soon. The Arctic Climate Forum has forecast across the majority of the Arctic through at least August.

Arctic temperatures have been rising faster than the global average. This map shows the average change in degrees Celsius from 1960 to 2019. NASA-GISS

Why is this heat wave sticking around? No one has a full answer yet, but we can look at the weather patterns around it. 

As a rule, heat waves are related to unusual jet stream patterns, and the Siberian heat wave is no different. A persistent northward swing of the jet stream has placed the area under what meteorologists call a 鈥渞idge.鈥� When the jet stream swings northward like this, it allows warmer air into the region, raising the surface temperature. 

Some scientists expect rising global temperatures . The jet stream is driven by temperature contrasts. As the Arctic warms more quickly, these contrasts shrink, and the jet stream can slow. 

Is that what we鈥檙e seeing right now? We don鈥檛 yet know.

Swiss cheese sea ice and feedback loops

We do know that we鈥檙e seeing significant effects from this heat wave, particularly in the early loss of sea ice. 

The ice along the shores of Siberia has the appearance of Swiss cheese right now in satellite images, with big areas of open water that would normally still be covered. The sea ice extent in the Laptev Sea, north of Russia, is the lowest recorded for this time of year since satellite observations began.

The loss of sea ice also affects the temperature, creating a feedback loop. Earth鈥檚 ice and snow cover reflect the Sun鈥檚 incoming energy, helping to keep the region cool. When that reflective cover is gone, the dark ocean and land absorb the heat, further raising the surface temperature.

 along parts of the Siberian Coast, and the warm ocean waters will lead to more melting.

The risks of thawing permafrost

On land, a big concern is warming permafrost 鈥� the perennially frozen ground that underlies most Arctic terrain. 

When permafrost thaws under homes and bridges, . Alaskans have been contending with this for several years. Near Norilsk, Russia, thawing permafrost was  in late May that spilled thousands of tons of oil into a river.

Thawing permafrost also creates a less obvious but even more damaging problem. When the ground thaws, microbes in the soil begin turning its . Both are greenhouse gases that .

In a study published last year, researchers found that permafrost test sites around the world had  Fahrenheit on average over the decade from 2007 to 2016. The greatest increase was in Siberia, where some areas had warmed by 1.6 degrees. The current Siberian heat wave, especially if it continues, will regionally exacerbate that permafrost warming and thawing.

A satellite image shows the Norilsk oil spill flowing into neighboring rivers. The collapse of a giant fuel tank was blamed on thawing permafrost.

Wildfires are back again

The extreme warmth also raises the risk of 欧美口爆视频, which radically change the landscape in other ways. 

Drier forests are more prone to fires, often from lightning strikes. When forests burn, the dark, exposed soil left behind can absorb more heat and hasten warming. 

We鈥檝e seen a few years now of . This year, some scientists have speculated that some of the Siberian fires that broke out last year may have continued to  and reemerged.

A satellite images shows thinning sea ice in parts of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas and wildfire smoke pouring across Russia. The town of Verkhoyansk, normally known for being one of the coldest inhabited places on Earth, reported hitting 100 degrees on June 20. Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory

A disturbing pattern

The Siberian heat wave and its impacts will doubtless be widely studied. There will certainly be those eager to dismiss the event as just the result of an unusual persistent weather pattern. 

Caution must always be exercised about reading too much into a single event 鈥� heat waves happen. But this is part of a disturbing pattern. 

What is happening in the Arctic is very real and should serve as a warning to everyone who cares about the future of the planet as we know it.

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The 2019 Fall Newsletter has been published and is available for viewing. The newsletter is packed with department news, alumni updates, and articles by faculty and students. 

• Message from the Department Chair, pg 2
• Editors' Comments, pg 3
• Mark Serreze Named Distinguished Professor, pgs 4-5
• The Boulder Affordable Housing Research Initiative, pgs 6-7
• Introducing Morteza Karimzadeh, Assistant Professor, pgs 8-9
• Introducing Heide Bruckner, Instructor, pgs 9-10
• Emily Yeh Sabbatical Notes: Post-disaster trajectories in mountainous Chinese village, pgs 11-12
• Alumni Updates, pg 13
• Department News, pg 14
• Donor Support, pgs 15-16

All previous newsletters are on our Newsletters page.

For a more enjoyable reading experience, open the newsletter file and adjust your browser window to the same size as the newsletter page. The Table of Contents and other links are active within the document. 

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The Department of Geography is proud to announce Professor of Geography Mark Serreze has been named a University of 欧美口爆视频 Distinguished Professor by the Board of Regents. Mark is the director of the (NSIDC).

This is the highest honor awarded to faculty across the 4 campuses of the 欧美口爆视频 system鈥�. After the 欧美口爆视频 campuses nominate faculty for the award, President Mark Kennedy then reviews the nominations and, with the recommendation of the Distinguished Professors Committee, forwards the candidates' names to the Board of Regents. In order to receive this distinction, candidates must demonstrate exemplary performance in research or creative work, have a record of excellence in classroom teaching and supervision of individual learning, and exhibit outstanding leadership and service to the profession. Only 106 faculty members have received the distinguished professorship since its inception in 1977. 

Mark received his doctorate in geography from 欧美口爆视频 Boulder in 1989 for his work in Arctic sea ice variability. Today, his work focuses on the rapid changes occurring in the Arctic. He is one of the most published scientists in his field. His work has significantly improved our understanding of the Arctic鈥檚 role in global climate. His books include the award-winning textbook 鈥淭he Arctic Climate System鈥� and last year鈥檚 鈥淏rave New Arctic: The Untold Story of the Melting North,鈥� which has received critical acclaim for its impact on audiences beyond academia. Under his leadership, NSIDC continues to be the world鈥檚 leading source for data and information about our planet鈥檚 snow and ice.

As you know, the title 鈥渄istinguished professor鈥� is an honor that recognizes distinguished scholarship, excellent teaching and outstanding teaching and service; what reaction do you have to receiving this honor?

I always strive to be the best I can be in research, teaching and service to the University of 欧美口爆视频 and I bleed black and gold. But to receive recognition as a distinguished professor is very unexpected. I look at those who have preceded me and they seem so much more deserving. Simply put, I am humbled. 

If you were to briefly tell an audience of high-school students why they should study the cryosphere, what would you say?

Snow and ice are cool! The cryosphere acts as the natural refrigerator of our planet, and in many parts of the world, the water that slakes our thirst and that we use for agriculture and other purposes comes from snow and ice. Where would winter sports be without snow and ice?  But it also presents hazards, ranging from avalanches to slippery roads to even ice cream headaches. 

The world needs more people who know about the many facets of the cryosphere.

NSIDC is perhaps best known for tracking the Arctic sea-ice minimums each year; what would you like the general public to know about the center besides this?

The public needs to know that NSIDC has a mission: "To be the authoritative data management and science center for cryospheric data and research. We advance understanding of Earth's frozen regions and the changes taking place to inform decision making in service to humanity and Earth."  We are proud of what we do, because what we do is very important. And we are proud to pursue our mission as part of the University of 欧美口爆视频. 

The National Academy of Sciences has expressed concern that several factors are limiting the ability of labs like yours to attract enough talented graduate students and post-docs; is this also a concern of yours, and, if so, do you have any observations about the topic?

Our country needs to invest heavily in science. We need more science at all levels of education, from K-12 and beyond, especially in areas such as mathematics, physics, biology and chemistry. Students who want to pursue careers in science must be supported. We must provide our educators the resources that they need, and recognize, financially and in other ways, the huge responsibilities that they carry.   

Agencies like the National Science Foundation, NASA, NOAA and the National Institutes of Health that support basic research need to be viewed as crown jewels of our nation and given the full support they need to lead us into the future.  

When did you know that you would devote your career to the study of snow and ice?

While I had inklings as a child while growing up in Maine where winters were very real (I have some horror stories about things like daredevil sledding and riding ice floes down the Kennebunk River), I think the real decision point was back in 1982, when I first visited the Arctic as a young graduate student. It was a magical day when I stepped off that ski-equipped Twin Otter at the top of an ice cap into a world of pristine white. I knew then I had found my calling.  

For additional coverage, see:

-欧美口爆视频 Boulder's 欧美口爆视频 Arts and Sciences Magazine

-欧美口爆视频 System 

-欧美口爆视频 Boulder Today

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The 2018 Fall Newsletter has been published and is available for viewing. The newsletter is packed with department news, alumni updates, and student and faculty articles. 

• Bill Travis: Message from the Chair, pgs 2-3
• von Dreden Stacey Fellowship Winners, pgs 4-6
• Mark Serreze: Climate Change Becomes Persona (Non Grata), pgs 6-8
• Introducing Caitlin McShane, New Graduate Student, pgs 8-9
• Introducing Katherine Lininger, New Faculty Member, pg 10
• Seth Spielman鈥檚 鈥淒ouble Life鈥�, pg 11
• Mara Goldman: Examining Nature-Society Relations Across Boundaries, pgs 12-13
• A Career in Geography, Dr. Lionel D. Lyles, PhD, 1977, pgs 14-15
• Alumni Updates, pg 16
• Department News, pg 17
• Donor Support, pgs 18-19

All previous newsletters are on our Newsletters page.

For a more enjoyable reading experience, open the newsletter file and adjust your browser window to the same size as the newsletter page. The Table of Contents and other links are active within the document. 

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Geography Professor Mark Serreze will be presenting September 22 at noon. There are lots of other talks which geographers would find interesting. See the article in Arts & Sciences Magazine.

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Our spring and fall newsletters contain articles, research, news, and photos about the Geography Department's faculty, students, and alumni.

In this issue:

• Message from the Chair
• Tom Veblen Named 欧美口爆视频 Distinguished Professor
• Mark Serreze Named Professor of Distinction
• Yaffa Truelove, New Geography Faculty Member
• New Geography Instructors, Mike Dwyer and Sarah Kelly
• Graduate Student IGNITE Talks
• Department News
• Donor Support

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