Deliveries are getting faster than ever in the U.S., but the faster movement of goods is undercutting the country’s climate progress. 

In  July 18 in the journal Nature Energy, a ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder researcher and his collaborator estimate that federal regulations aimed at enhancing heavy-duty trucks’ energy efficiency could be as much as 20% less effective than policymakers initially anticipated. 

That’s because the regulations make trucking cheaper. As a result, more shippers will likely switch from using less energy-intensive rail transportation to using more energy-intensive trucks to ship goods.

“We were surprised to see how big of an impact the change in shipping decisions has on our energy use,” said Jonathan Hughes, the paper’s corresponding author and professor in the Department of Economics at ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder. “Increasing vehicles’ energy efficiency is very costly for truck makers, so it’s important to know how much benefit we can get realistically from these costly regulations.”

The rebound effect

In economics, increased consumption due to improved efficiency and reduced costs is known as the rebound effect. 

For example, if using an air conditioner consumes much more electricity than using a fan, many people will stick to the fan. But when air conditioners become more efficient, and cooling becomes cheaper, more people will switch to air conditioners. This behavior change would increase overall energy consumption. 

Hughes and his collaborators wanted to study the extent of the rebound effect in the freight sector. 

“When we think about the challenges in energy and climate change issues, freight transportation is a big, important sector that hasn't received enough attention,” Hughes said. 

The freight sector, which includes transportation of goods by truck, train, ship and airplane, represents approximately 10% of total U.S. energy consumption. Freight movement contributes to  (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector, which is the largest source of emissions in the U.S. 

The majority of emissions from the freight sector come from trucking, which saw a  in GHG emissions since 1990. 

In a bid to reduce emissions and avoid the worse consequences of climate change, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has rolled out a series of regulations to improve heavy-duty vehicles’ energy efficiency since 2011. These rules require newly manufactured trucks to achieve better mileage using less fuel and emit less GHG. 

In March, the EPA  the strictest-ever fuel economy standards, aiming to  by 2055.

But while these regulations make trucks more energy-efficient, they also make trucking cheaper by reducing fuel costs.  As a result, many shippers may opt to transport their goods by truck instead of rail, because trucks can reach destinations faster, allowing for quicker product sales. The authors note that trucks consume significantly more fuel than rail to transport the same amount of goods over the same distance. 

Unintended consequence

Hughes and his collaborator, James Bushnell of University of California at Davis, used newly released data on goods movement from the U.S. Census Bureau to estimate the rebound effect in the freight sector. Using a computer simulation, they calculated the amount of energy saved if the EPA regulations increased new trucks’ fuel efficiency by 5%, which is roughly what the standard is today.

Under this scenario, the team found that the regulations had the potential to save 674 million gallons of gas per year. But when they factored in the increased share of goods forecasted to be shipped by truck due to the rebound effect, the regulations would only save 497 million gallons of fuel—still a significant amount, but 26% less than previously estimated.

Some industries, such as the chemical, animal feed, alcohol and petroleum industries are particularly sensitive to reductions in fuel costs and would likely experience the largest rebound effect, Hughes said.

Accounting for all modes of freight transportation, the team estimated that the rebound effect in the freight sector would reduce the total fuel savings from federal regulations by 20%. 

“We show that if we make transportation much more efficient, either through increasing energy efficiency or automation that reduces labor costs, we will likely wind up consuming more energy than we thought we would,” said Hughes. 

While the paper focused on the freight sector, Hughes added a similar rebound effect could also exists in the retail sector, which includes businesses like Amazon.

“These regulations that help reduce transportation costs certainly benefit consumers, because we can now purchase things at lower prices. But we show that these rules can be somewhat counterproductive in terms of achieving our climate change and energy goals,” Hughes said. 

 Hughes said making fuel pricier and transportation more expensive through programs like taxing carbon emissions would be a more effective way to reduce energy use in transportation.  But those types of policies tend to be very difficult to get political support for, he added. 

“This study shows we should get a more complete picture of the impacts these regulations might have, so we don’t end up adopting policies that lead to unintended negative effects,” he said.

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ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo dipped into all-things quantum July 3 as she made her first official visit to ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder and JILA, a joint institute between the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder.

As a member of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology arriving on campus only a day after it was announced that the Mountain West is receiving a $127 million infusion to bolster quantum technology and workforce, the discussion was energized and timely. The committee oversees vital policies related to the National Science Foundation (NSF), NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and NIST. The committee also handles several aspects of federal quantum policy.

ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Rep. Yadira Caraveo gets a tour of Jun Ye’s lab in JILA

“I am really looking forward to continued partnership with you all,” said Caraveo after hearing about a range of quantum initiatives on campus and across the region and taking notes. “I’m going to get down to work making sure these agencies are well-funded.”  

She was joined by university leaders, including Chancellor Justin Schwartz, Vice Chancellor for Research Massimo Ruzzene, Dean of the College of Engineering and Applied Science Keith Molenaar, and notable researchers and professors, including JILA Fellow John Bohn, JILA and NIST Fellow Jun Ye, Mike Gooseff, Scott Diddams, Greg Rieker, ŷ���ڱ���Ƶbit Quantum Initiative Director Scott Sternberg and representatives Laura Buccini and Dan LaBarbera from the University of ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Anschutz Medical Campus.

“In my short time at ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ so far, I have had the privilege of taking part in the exciting work that the university, in partnership with government and industry, is doing to build the quantum ecosystem in ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ,” said Schwartz, who began his post as ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder’s 12th chancellor on July 1. “It is a very exciting time and one of the reasons I was so excited to join the ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder community.”

Schwartz also expressed gratitude to Caraveo for her leadership on the House Science Committee, which is leading the 118th Congress in updating the National Quantum Initiative Act, and offered the university’s support for passing the bill this year. The law, which has accelerated federal research in quantum, expired in 2023.

“ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ appreciates the inclusion of many of our priorities in the House reauthorization bill, including expanded NIST partnerships in quantum sensing and quantum engineering, ensuring the current NSF quantum institutes are renewable, creating a new quantum center opportunity at NASA, and authorizing new NSF programs to expand efforts in education, translation, capacity building and infrastructure,” Ruzzene said.

In addition to giving her a better understanding of the latest advancements and challenges in quantum science, the campus conversation emphasized the critical role of ongoing federal support in continuing the United States' leadership in quantum research and innovation.

  Learn more about quantum research and news at ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder

ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ’s growing quantum hub

Caraveo is one of many ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ leaders who has recently visited ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder and JILA to discuss ongoing efforts in quantum research.

ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ is rapidly establishing itself as a quantum research and innovation hub, with ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder playing a key role in helping to spawn many local quantum computing startup companies. The state government estimates the quantum industry could add thousands of jobs to ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ over the next decade.

Just the day before, the U.S. Economic Development Administration announced that Elevate Quantum, of which ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder is a key partner, received a Tech Hub Phase 2 implementation award from the Department of Commerce, unlocking more than $127 million in new federal and state funding. 

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Gov. Jared Polis has signed new legislation directing ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder’s Mortenson Center in Global Engineering & Resilience and ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ State University’s Energy Institute to identify new pathways to enhance water quality and environmental sustainability in ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ.

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At a ceremony Tuesday, May 28, on the ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder campus, ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Gov. Jared Polis ushered in a new bill to support the state’s rapidly growing quantum industry.

Polis signed the bill from the top floor of the JILA Tower, one of the epicenters of quantum research on campus, with a view of the Flatirons in the background.

“It’s official. Congratulations,” he told the roughly 50 people in attendance, including a contingent of scientists from between ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder and the (NIST).

   Learn more about quantum research at ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder

Quantum mechanics is a branch of physics that zooms in on the strange behavior of very small things—from atoms to electrons and exotic states of matter that only emerge at extremely cold temperatures. If the state receives federal funding, the new bill, , will provide a series of tax incentives to foster businesses, research organizations and more that seek to tap into this realm to develop new technologies. It will provide $74 million for the state’s quantum industry and could unlock up to $1 billion in new investments for the ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ economy. 

The bill was sponsored by the bipartisan team of representatives Alex Valdez and Matt Soper, and senators Jeff Bridges and Mark Baisley. In attendance at the signing ceremony were ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Regent Lesley Smith, ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder Provost Russell Moore and Massimo Ruzzene, vice chancellor for Research & Innovation and dean of the institutes at ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder.

The effort highlights ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ’s status as a new Silicon Valley for quantum technologies. They include computers that could one day outperform even the fastest supercomputers today at certain tasks and sensors that can detect methane leaks in the air above oil and gas operations.

“Quantum technology is the future of computing,” Polis said in a statement. “Today we proved that quantum is bigger and better in the West! As home to four Nobel Prize winners for quantum science, more than 3,000 quantum workers, and five of the top 20 quantum companies, ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ is the clear future of quantum.”

Ruzzene agreed, noting that the bill will help ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder build on its decades-spanning legacy of quantum research. Today, the ŷ���ڱ���Ƶbit Quantum Initiative catalyzes research on campus, expands education and workforce opportunities and links quantum advancements to industry and government efforts and more.

JILA Fellow Margaret Murnane, left, and her team members talk in a lab that specializes in laser science. (Credit: Glenn Asakawa/ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder)

“The bill will support the construction of a state-of-the-art quantum technology incubator, a facility that is poised to be unique in the world, and that will set our state apart,” he said. “It will foster the translation of technology and catalyze innovation, expanding educational and workforce opportunities while also creating jobs and economic benefits for all of ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ.”

Quantum legacy

ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder, including through its partnership with NIST, has long been the beating heart of quantum research in ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ. JILA was founded in 1962, and the JILA Tower opened five years later. Four scientists affiliated with ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder have won the Nobel Prize in Physics for advancements in quantum science: , , and . 

ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder faculty members and alumni have also helped to found a number of quantum companies, many based in ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ. They include (formerly ColdQuanta), ,, , , , , and .

It hasn’t gone unnoticed. Last year, the U.S. Department of Commerce named , a coalition of 120 organizations including ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder, as an —one of only two entities in the country to receive that designation.

HB24-1325 will add to that legacy. Elevate Quantum is currently competing for up to $70 million in funding from the federal government. If the state receives that funding, HB24-1325 will provide a “100% refundable income tax credit for qualifying investments in fixed capital assets as part of a coordinated plan to create a shared quantum facility.” It will also provide income tax credits for groups investing in quantum companies. 

Valdez said the bill shows that ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ is poised to become a central player in the future of technology around the world.

“With the passage of HB24-1325, ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ has made a bold commitment to building upon our existing quantum technology ecosystem,” he said in a statement. “The investments created through this bill send a strong message to the federal government that ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ is ready to become the epicenter of the global quantum technology ecosystem.”

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Professor Amir Behzadan joined an invitation-only group of experts in Washington, D.C., to discuss artificial intelligence models in weather prediction—potentially valuable tools for alerting residents earlier, ultimately saving lives and property.

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ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder today was awarded two grants totaling nearly $700,000 through the statewide Geothermal Energy Grant Program (GEGP) to determine whether geothermal energy is feasible for the campus. 

“Geothermal energy, the heat beneath our feet, is an underutilized resource that can save people money on energy and improve air quality. ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ is already a national leader in low-cost renewable energy, and now with these grants, we are supporting more geothermal energy across the state,” Gov. Jared Polis said.

Polis announced the award recipients at a ceremony in Pueblo on Friday.

“Geothermal energy has tremendous growth potential for application in the United States, and we are grateful to the state for this funding that will help us further explore the application of both geo-exchange and geothermal resources for the campus,” Chancellor Philip DiStefano said. “The proposed studies will advance ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder’s energy and climate action goals as we seek to reduce climate impacts for the benefit of ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ residents, ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder students, faculty and staff, and the local and regional community.”

In support of ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder's climate action goals, geothermal technology and solutions are being explored primarily for their greenhouse gas emissions reduction capabilities and energy-efficient improvements. ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder’s goal is a 50% emissions reduction by 2030, with a clear path to meeting a zero emissions target no later than 2050. 

“ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder is exploring an innovative approach to meet its sustainability goals and make the most of geothermal resources,” ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Energy Office Executive Director Will Toor said. “Full implementation of ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ’s proposed projects to generate on-site electricity while providing efficient heating and cooling for campus buildings will set an example of what’s possible across our state using the heat beneath our feet.”

The Geothermal Electricity Generation Scope Study Project provides a grant of $175,092 to explore the availability and feasibility of using deep geothermal resources to generate heat and power for the campus. If deep geothermal resources are feasible, the study's results could lead to the addition of cogeneration plants on campus that produce geothermal energy and create new job opportunities. Electricity is produced from geothermal technology by sourcing high-temperature heat from deep down in the earth to create steam that is then converted into electricity.

“We are excited to begin work on our geothermal electricity generation scoping and community district heating design studies,” Vice Chancellor for Infrastructure and Sustainability Chris Ewing said. “We are thrilled to begin working with the ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Energy Office, RMH, Eavor Technologies, NREL, Major Geothermal and the Boulder community on these important studies and are excited about the opportunities that may be generated from them.”

The ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Energy Office received 40 applications for the GEGP and awarded a total of $7.7 million. ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder plans to begin both studies in July or August 2024.

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JILA, a joint institute between ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder and NIST, was represented at the inaugural NSF Quantum Showcase on Capitol Hill. Attending were Professor Heather Lewandowski and graduate student Qizhong Liang, a member of Jun Ye’s research group.

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ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder’s Research Computing team is spearheading a working group in an initiative that aims to link U.S. researchers and educators with computational, data and training resources essential for progressing AI research and AI-infused research endeavors.

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ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Boulder Chancellor Philip DiStefano, Director of the Center for Leadership Stefanie Johnson and student leaders met with members of the ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ congressional delegation and their staff in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday.

The visits and a “ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ in D.C.” alumni reception are an annual occurrence to connect with students and alumni studying and working in the nation’s capital.  

DiStefano discussed the importance of strong and consistent federal funding for research universities. This year, funding levels were $8 billion less than authorized by lawmakers in the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. 

He also stressed the importance of growing the federal Pell Grant to support low- and middle-income students, and highlighted the university’s efforts to lower the cost of attendance for Pell-eligible students. 

Senators Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper and Rep. Brittany Pettersen also heard from Center for Leadership students. The campus program allows students to participate in academic courses, experiential learning and co-curricular leader development programming.

The chancellor’s visit was supported in partnership with the ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ system Office of Government Relations.

Buffs at the capitol

Chancellor Phil DiStefano, Professor Stephanie Johnson and student leaders hold a Buffs flag in front of the capitol building.

Rep. Brittany Pettersen's office

Chancellor Phil DiStefano and ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ student leaders visit with Rep. Brittany Pettersen and staff.

ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ in D.C. alumni event

Chancellor Phil DiStefano, Professor Stephanie Johnson, ŷ���ڱ���ƵSG tri-execs Chase Cromwell and Gaby Aguijosa, and Ryan Chreist of the ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ Alumni Association discuss student leadership.

Capitol Hill breakfast

Chancellor Phil DiStefano, Professor Stephanie Johnson, students, alumni and families enjoy breakfast together.

Sen. John Hickelooper's office

Chancellor Phil DiStefano, Professor Stephanie Johnson and ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ student leaders visit with Sen. John Hickelooper.

Sen. Michael Bennet's office

Chancellor Phil DiStefano, Professsor Stephanie Johnson and ŷ���ڱ���Ƶ student leaders visit with Sen. Michael Bennet. 

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