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Dr. Adams holds a PhD in Civil Engineering from Virginia Tech, with a concentration in water resources engineering, focusing on hydrologic prediction uncertainty. He is currently a Senior Hydrometeorological Hazard Advisor with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Most of his professional career was with the NOAA/NWS as a Research hydrologist in the Office of Hydrology, Hydrologic Research Laboratory and at the Ohio River Forecast Center in Wilmington, OH as the Development and Operations Hydrologist. He was, recently, a University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Visiting Scientist at the NOAA/NWS National Water Center in the Analysis and Prediction Division. As an independent consultant, he has traveled to China on several occasions in 2014 as a flash flood forecasting expert for the City of Beijing, China, Institute for Hydraulic and Hydrologic Research. Most recently, in 2015 and 2017, Dr. Adams was a consultant to the World Bank in Islamabad, Karachi, and Lahore, Pakistan. In a similar capacity, Dr. Adams served as a consultant with the World Bank, in Hanoi, Viet Nam in 2016, to evaluate proposed modernization of flood forecasting and water resources services. He has also worked on projects internationally in Panama and Romania.

Before joining UCAR at the NOAA/NWS/NWC, Dr. Adams worked in private industry on the development and implementation of distributed hydrologic models for flood forecasting. After leaving the NWS, he served as a hydrologist in the Climate and Water Division, Water Forecasting Services Branch, Flood Forecasting and Warning Section, with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne, Australia. As the Development and Operations Hydrologist at the NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center, from 1994 to February 2013 he was responsible for and directed all research & development and implementation of new hydrologic, hydraulic, and hydrometeorological models, procedures, and software.

Dr. Adams holds memberships in of several scientific societies and served several terms on the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Hydrology Committee, where, among other responsibilities, he participated on a team to re-write the AMS policy statement on Data Sharing and lead a national team to re-write the AMS statement on Flash Floods. He is an active member of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), Environmental & Water Resources Institute (EWRI), Risk, Uncertainty, and Probabilistic Approaches Committee. He has chaired numerous sessions at both AMS and ASCE international scientific meetings and presented many conference papers. Over his professional career, he has participated in numerous national, regional and local meetings with State, County, and Local governmental bodies. In 2016 he published a book entitled “Flood Forecasting: a Global Perspective” as the lead editor, authoring one chapter on U.S. flood forecasting by the National Weather Service, and co-authored the introductory chapter. The book was published by Elsevier/Academic Press in May 2016 and included contributions from leading scientists and engineers in the UK, Germany, Russia, Israel, China, Australia, Brazil, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), US Geological Survey, Congo River Basin, Gash River Basin Horn of Africa, Columbia South America, Ganges River Basin, and others. A 2nd edition is under preparation. He is a co-editor with international contributors, entitled “Indus River Basin: Water Security and Sustainability” published in January 2019 by Elsevier. In the book, Dr. Adams authored one chapter and co-author the introductory chapter. 

רSTRACT 

The evolution of Hydrologic Forecasting — serendipity from failure and when things don’t quite work out

Failure is often a good thing and, very often, more interesting than success, because, if we’re wise, we learn from it. Failure compels us to investigate the cause(s) of why things didn’t behave as we expected. As with many endeavors, failure is inevitable. The long-standing Murphy’s Laws predict this. How we cope with Mother Nature being a b… is interesting and is especially true in hydrologic prediction and forecasting. In 1976, a British statistician, George Box, famously wrote, the oft quoted phrase, “All models are wrong, some are useful.” This is where the fun begins. The evolution and advancement of hydrologic forecasting can be viewed largely through the lens of technological improvements (computers, telecommunication, databases, etc.), use of geographic information systems (GIS), and higher resolution spatial data (doppler radar, satellite remote sensing, topographic, bathymetric, vegetation). But uncertainty is always with us. It is critical to convey forecast uncertainty to the end users of forecasts in a timely, understandable, and actionable way. This remains a great challenge.

I present examples of some of these advancements in real-time hydrologic forecasting, which I have had the privilege to have been a part of. 

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