Water Supply Risk On The Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ River: Can Management Mitigate?
Rajagopalan, Balaji 1 ; Nowak, Kenneth 2 ; Prairie, James 3 ; Hoerling, Martin4 ; Harding, Benjamin 5 ; Barsugli, Joseph 6 ; Ray, Andrea 7 ; Udall, Bradley 8
2 Presenting Author
1 Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
2 Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
3 Bureau of Reclamation, University of Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
4 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
5 AMEC Earth & Environmental, Inc., Boulder, CO 80302 USA
6 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
7 NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
8 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
With climate change looming, continued population growth, and the likelihood of multi-year droughts, the future reliability of Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ River water supply is in question. We assess the risk to Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ River water supply for the next 50 years (2008-2057). Under current practices in the absence of climate change we find a 5% risk of reservoir depletion through 2026 increasing to 9% by 2057, demonstrating resilience to demand growth and natural climate variability. A 20% reduction in Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ River average flow due to climate change by 2057, increases risk through 2026 to less than 12%, but greatly increases risk to 52% in 2057. However, we find management alternatives can greatly reduce risk – under aggressive management the risk reduces to 32%. A lower rate of climate change induced flow reduction, demand adaptation and aggressive management can further reduce the risk to around 10% - suggesting substantial flexibility in existing management could mitigate the increased risk.