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Sarah Posner and John O’Loughlin with Terry McCabe (Institute of Behavioral Science) interviewing a government official in the Isiolo office on the drought’s extent and effects on local livelihoods.

The purpose of the July 2022 fieldwork was to share the survey results with local stakeholders (government officials, NGO’s, etc) and to discuss the findings in light of their local knowledge.  Key results were presented at the National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Geographical Sciences annual in December 2022.  Current plans include preparing a research article on the Isiolo case study and write research proposals to extend the study in comparative work on sites across Kenya’s diverse ecological and livelihood zones. 

Further accounts of the research were reported in Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ Boulder Today in May 2022  

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In 2008 and 2009, a severe drought swept through much of Kenya and Tanzania. Nomadic herders, or pastoralists, such as the Maasai people in Tanzania, pushed south in search of greener expanses, bringing tens of thousands of cattle with them. 

What happened next was largely unprecedented: Locals from a region of Tanzania called Manyara, who were also Maasai, evicted the newcomers, beating some so badly they ended up in the hospital. 

Terrence McCabe, professor of anthropology at Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ Boulder, has lived and worked with pastoralist groups in the region for more than 30 years. For him, that sudden and shocking violence was a symbol of a changing East Africa—a warning sign that people such as the Maasai  as freely as they used to. Survey results from the last two years in central Kenya show that life for pastoralist peoples may be getting even worse. Herders are struggling to feed their families in the midst of a pandemic, a historic locust invasion and drought after drought.

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John O'Loughlin
Professor, Department of Geography
University of Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ Boulder

Sarah Posner
PhD Student of Geography
University of Å·ÃÀ¿Ú±¬ÊÓƵ Boulder

October 29, 2021
GUGG 205, 3:30 PM

Abstract:

The extent of climate change effects on the potential for violence is uncertain. Research has focused on poor countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa but the mechanisms that might connect climate change to conflict or to cooperation are poorly understood. Our field study in Isiolo and Meru counties in northern Kenya examines the experiences of a panel of 500 respondents in multiple waves across the seasons through an initial face-to-face contact survey and four follow-up telephone surveys. The past 20 months of the project have been a time of additional challenges from Covid-19 and from locust swarms in addition to environmental hazards of floods and drought. Survey data on food security, inter-ethnic attitudes, NGO and government aid, household adaptations, Covid and locust experiences, and weather perceptions and support for violence after three waves show a picture that is much more complex than the usual portrayal of the climate-violence link in the media and in US government documents.

Watch Zoom Meeting Recording:

[video:https://vimeo.com/641174109]

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