Nearly one month after the Marshall Fire became the most destructive and one of the most unique 欧美口爆视频 in 欧美口爆视频 history, 欧美口爆视频 Boulder researchers from across campus鈥攎any of them personally affected by the fire鈥攈ave pivoted and applied their expertise to the aftermath, hoping to learn from a tragedy in their own backyard and help prepare the country for the next 鈥渃limate fire.鈥�

鈥淲hat makes this fire really unique is that it happened in a community that is full of researchers that study this exact topic,鈥� said Natasha Stavros, director of the Earth Lab Analytics Hub at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at 欧美口爆视频 Boulder. 鈥淲e are going to have measurements unlike anywhere else.鈥�

What makes this fire really unique is that it happened in a community that is full of researchers that study this exact topic. We are going to have measurements unlike anywhere else.鈥�
鈥揘atasha Stavros

 

As a grass-fueled December wildfire in a crowded suburb, the fire was quite different than the state鈥檚 massive forest fires of 2020, resulting in many novel impacts on the environment and human health. More than a dozen research projects are already underway, investigating everything from its impact on air and water quality, to the fire speeds that drove it, and how changes in infrastructure and insurance could limit damage from future fires like it. Researchers hope the findings can help inform homeowners, local governments and communities today and shape policies for tomorrow.

鈥淚n between all of us, there is so much expertise to address the causes and the impacts of this fire,鈥� said Joost de Gouw, CIRES fellow and professor of chemistry. 鈥淚f we come together to produce and publish research, we can really change the future of how we think about wildfire.鈥�

Recipe for a winter wildfire

Three ingredients contribute to fire on the landscape: fuel, climate and ignition, said Stavros.

Due to higher-than-normal snowpack levels in late winter of 2021, a wet spring and a rainier than normal July, grasses grew abundantly in the Front Range throughout the year. By the time December rolled around, fuel accumulation was up 60% to 70% compared with a normal year. These plentiful dry grasses, combined with a 3-foot snow deficit and fierce Chinook winds, set the perfect stage that day for a spark to spiral out of control.

Avery Hatch, a 欧美口爆视频 Boulder doctoral student in environmental engineering, monitors indoor air quality in a spared home after the Marshall wildfire. (Photo by Casey A. Cass/欧美口爆视频 Boulder)

Environmental engineering faculty Julie Korak and Cresten Mansfeldt collect water samples. (Credit: Fernando Rosario-Ortiz)

This abundant fuel would not have existed without increases in precipitation and snowmelt in the first half of 2021, followed by a drastic lack of moisture in the second half of the year鈥攂oth of which point to climate as the driving cause.

鈥淚t鈥檚 the first time in my career I have felt comfortable saying this is a climate fire,鈥� said Stavros.

Climate change will continue to have a hand in the future of wildfire, increasing the length and intensity of fire seasons as well as changing how, when and where water is distributed, said Stavros.  

In addition to analyzing the impacts of fuel growth, researchers in the Earth Lab are also examining the role of another major factor in the Marshall Fiire: speed.

The Marshall Fire only burned 6,000 acres, less than half the size of 欧美口爆视频鈥檚 second most destructive fire in state history, the Black Forest Fire. Yet it tore through twice as much infrastructure, accounting for 39% of all homes lost to wildfire disasters in the state since 1999, according to Maxwell Cook, doctoral student in the Department of Geography and the Earth Lab.

The fire also now ranks in the top 15 most destructive wildfire events in the western United States, only one of two grassland fires in that list.

Cook is currently working with Jennifer Balch, director of the Earth Lab, to conduct research on the factors which make a fire most likely to burn down homes.

So far, their data shows speed matters most. This may seem obvious, but Cook, Balch and their colleagues have developed new data that now allows them to track and quantify that impact.

鈥淭he speed of the fire is also really what makes it difficult for emergency management personnel to respond, to get evacuation orders out in time,鈥� said Cook. 鈥淢anagement strategies that are aimed at reducing the speed of 欧美口爆视频 could be critically important for communities.鈥�

This could include creating fire/fuel breaks around suburban neighborhoods and removing vegetation next to homes鈥攕trategies already broadly in use in foothills communities around 欧美口爆视频. Early detection systems and quick emergency responses are also key, especially in densely populated neighborhoods.

is also involved in helping develop better maps of where homes are at risk of wildfire across the West, which can help communities and insurances companies better plan for and mitigate that risk.

鈥淲e may need to think hard about what we define as the wildland urban interface (WUI). There's a lot of flammable landscape and development out there that's maybe not accounted for,鈥� said Cook. 鈥淏uilding smarter, both in terms of where we build and how we build, that's going to be a big thing moving forward.鈥�

Clearing the air

Three weeks after the fire, homeowners and renters who did not lose their residences still face an important unknown: Is it safe to go home?

Buildings were inundated with smoke, full of unhealthy compounds created as the blaze burned paint, fried refrigerators and melted metals in nearby homes. These chemicals, absorbed by surviving structures like a sponge, now pose a previously unquantified problem.

Air quality scientists from 欧美口爆视频 Boulder, CIRES and NOAA quickly compiled an about the impacts of post-fire smoke cleanup in homes. Led by de Gouw, they next installed instruments in several surviving homes to measure levels of harmful gases and understand the lingering effects of smoke on indoor air quality. Another team of scientists have also been driving through affected neighborhoods with a mobile laboratory to measure what the remains of buildings emit into the immediate atmosphere.

An interdisciplinary team including engineers, social scientists and chemists from across campus will continue to collect data indoors over the coming months to and learn more about lingering human health concerns that 欧美口爆视频 in urban areas can present.

Downstream effects

Meanwhile, Fernando Rosario-Ortiz and his colleagues are studying water.

For years, the associate dean for faculty advancement at the College of Engineering and his colleagues in the Environmental Engineering Program have worked to understand the implications of wildfire on water. But they usually study forests.

鈥淐ombusting homes is a whole different ball game,鈥� said Rosario-Ortiz.

It鈥檚 not just wood that鈥檚 burning in a suburban fire: It鈥檚 homes, vehicles and all the stuff in them: fabric, plastics, electronics, batteries, you name it. Those remains and the compounds created can find their way into local water systems. When a fire is quickly followed by rain or snow, as was the case with the Marshall Fire, concerns about contamination are even higher, he said.

Julie Korak and Cresten Mansfeldt, assistant professors of environmental engineering, have partnered with colleagues across campus, local community organizations and municipalities, to collect surface water samples in the area, test for concerning chemicals and address questions of watershed safety posed by residents. In the next month or so, the team will have initial results to share with stakeholders.

鈥淓veryone here takes their water very seriously,鈥� said Mansfeldt. 鈥淭his work provides a first fingerprint of how a fire like this impacts a community, and how we can assist recovery.鈥�

Building back better

Now that we know a fire like this is possible, the big question the Front Range faces is: How do we keep this from happening again?

A first step in answering: To get a comprehensive, birds-eye view of the damage.

Read more

• After the fire: A look at the Marshall Fire鈥檚 community impact
•  (CIRES)
• If you really listen, survivors and emergency responders will tell you what they need
• (Earth Lab blog)

To that end, Brad Wham, assistant research professor in the Center for Infrastructure, Energy and Space Testing, will join a national team of colleagues this week to fly drones over the burn sites before cleanup begins, gathering valuable clues about what happened that day. The work is part of a larger collaborative research effort, supported by the Resilient Infrastructure with Sustainability and Equity IRT (RISE) within the College of Engineering and Applied Science, formed in the wake of the fire to connect environmental engineers, social scientists, first responders, and policy experts conducting work on natural disasters.

And once rebuilding begins?

鈥淚t is entirely practical to build back better,鈥� said Keith Porter, adjoint professor of civil, architecture and environmental engineering.

Porter explains that using fire resistant materials to build a home doesn鈥檛 only make it less likely to burn, but they鈥檙e a relatively cheap upgrade (less than $10,000 compared to replacing a home worth $600,000) and due to their longevity, can lead to immense savings over the life of the home.

The International Wildland Urban Interface Code, for example鈥攁dopted in parts of Boulder County鈥攔equires that fire resistant materials be used in new construction. Porter points out, however, that unless cities and counties mandate this kind of fire code, homebuilders aren鈥檛 required to swap wood shingles for a non-combustible roof or to replace vinyl siding with stucco in new developments. When rebuilding, insurance companies may mandate that a house be replaced 鈥渓ike for like,鈥� potentially inhibiting homeowners from replacing flammable building materials with fire resistant ones鈥攅ven if it could save insurance companies money to let people do so, according to Porter.

As affected residents navigate their insurance policies, find temporary housing in a tight market and try to stay healthy during the omicron surge, fighting for fire resistant materials may not be able to be a top priority. This is why, Porter points out, the real power to protect public safety is not on the individual, but in the hands of local officials.

鈥淓verybody else is affected by somebody else's house burning,鈥� said Porter. 鈥淏oth in an economic sense and in a moral sense, we really are all in this together.鈥�

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On Monday, President Joe Biden signed the into law鈥攖argeting roughly $1.2 trillion to shore up the nation鈥檚 aging, sagging and crumbling roads, bridges and other infrastructure. According to estimates from the White House, 欧美口爆视频 alone could receive $3.7 billion to improve its roads, $917 million for public transportation and more.

Keith Porter is an adjunct professor in the Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering at 欧美口爆视频 Boulder. He led a 2019 report called . In it, Porter and his colleagues argued that spending money now could save the nation trillions of dollars in coming decades鈥攖hrough reducing the costs for repairs, preventing deadly disasters like bridge collapses, keeping commercial trucks on the move and more.

Porter sat down with 欧美口爆视频 Boulder Today to talk about the new infrastructure bill and why living with aging roads and bridges is like living with credit card debt.

A lot of critics of this bill have expressed sticker shock. But you鈥檝e made the case that it will cost us a lot more money in the long term not to invest in infrastructure.

Keith Porter

It鈥檚 a false economy to skimp on our utility and transportation infrastructure. We all rely on it. Society doesn鈥檛 work without roads, bridges and water systems. 

What will this bill mean for 欧美口爆视频?

If 欧美口爆视频 is like the rest of the nation, this bill is going to partially close our investment gap in infrastructure, but it鈥檚 not going to close it completely. Nationwide, the $1.2 trillion investment is about half of what the (ASCE) says we need to spend over the next 10 years just to have adequate infrastructure. And the number keeps climbing because we under-invest.

So you see this as just a start?

It鈥檚 like paying only half your credit card bill. We can鈥檛 live off that credit indefinitely.

When you look at 欧美口爆视频, what are some of the biggest challenges facing our infrastructure?

We鈥檝e got hail and tornados, and we鈥檝e got flooding, just like our neighboring states. We鈥檝e got fire in the wildland-urban interface. To some extent, we have earthquakes, less than California, but we also build weaker. We have all of the natural disasters that cost the country big bucks, except for coastal flooding and hurricanes, obviously. 

How much money do we stand to save by making our infrastructure more resilient to those kinds of hazards?

We estimate, for example, that the money that gets spent on making our roads and bridges more resilient to flooding will save $8 for every dollar spent. You either pay for it now, or you pay for it a whole lot more later.

Flooding is clearly a big issue in 欧美口爆视频鈥攕omething we learned in 2013 and again this summer when a mudslide shut down I-70 around Glenwood Canyon for weeks. Can investment in infrastructure prevent that kind of disaster in the future?

The climate is getting hotter, and we鈥檙e going to have more and more 欧美口爆视频. They鈥檙e going to be followed by more severe rains, and we鈥檙e going to get mudslides. It鈥檚 going to be really hard to make that road mudslide proof.

But most of our roads are the stuff you drive on to get to the 7-Eleven or your child's school. What you do is build the road higher and the storm sewer system better so that the water can run off into a storm sewer rather than sweeping you and your kid away.

This week鈥檚 wildfire near Estes Park also drove home just how vulnerable the state is to fire. What can we do to reduce those risks?

We have guidance called the International Wildland-Urban Interface Code. If we adopt that for areas where cities grow into wildlands, it could save $3 dollars for every dollar spent and maybe more. 

What kind of actions does that code recommend?

It says you can鈥檛 build the sidings of buildings out of vinyl鈥攗se cement board or stucco, instead, something that can鈥檛 ignite. It requires that you do things like put a noncombustible skirt around the house so there aren鈥檛 trees and bushes right up against it. Just having that gravel skirt makes a huge difference. 

Now that this bill has been signed, what do you think the biggest priorities are for improving infrastructure around the country? Roads? Bridges? Power grids? 

If you look at the from the ASCE, there are Cs and Ds across the board. We have to do it all. It鈥檚 too late to say, 鈥榶es this, but not that.鈥� That鈥檚 how we got here in the first place鈥攂y economizing on things you just don鈥檛 economize on.

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In Louisiana, Hurricane Ida devastating communities with 150-mile-per-hour winds and towering And in California, the Caldor Fire, which has burned 320 square miles and destroyed over 700 structures, rapidly advanced toward South Lake Tahoe on Monday. In a scene eerily reminiscent of the chaotic 2018 during the Camp Fire鈥攚hen 86 people died, many in their cars on the road out of town鈥攅vacuees sat in gridlock, desperate to flee the approaching flames. The blaze now threatens to destroy .

Hurricanes and 欧美口爆视频 are two very different disasters supercharged by a common force: climate change. A warming climate doesn't cause such events, to be sure, but scientists have shown time and time again that it does . 鈥淏oth are the opposite sides of the coin of a future warming climate,鈥� says atmospheric and climate scientist Vasu Misra of Florida State University. 鈥淵ou have extremes on both sides鈥攅xtremely dry weather and extremely wet events occurring simultaneously on the same continent.鈥� And the two have something else in common: When they strike, it鈥檚 getting harder for people to get away from them.

鈥淢ore frequent, severe, and faster-growing 欧美口爆视频 and hurricanes increase the size and frequency of disasters and evacuations, and decrease the warning time,鈥� says Keith Porter, a researcher at the University of 欧美口爆视频 Boulder鈥檚 Natural Hazards Center. That鈥檚 partly because it鈥檚 getting harder to predict their behavior. Warming ocean temperatures accelerate the intensification of hurricanes, and a drier, hotter climate makes for 欧美口爆视频 that grow with unprecedented speed and ferocity. 鈥淚n a rapidly changing climate, it gets harder to do accurate risk assessment, because the analyst can't rely as heavily on nature's past behavior,鈥� Porter adds. 鈥淲e have less historical guidance and proof for costly evacuation decisions.鈥�

Climate change is adding yet more complexity to an already complex situation. 鈥淲ith rapidly changing hazards such as 欧美口爆视频, we definitely see that people have to make a lot of quick decisions in conditions of uncertainty,鈥� says Nnenia Campbell, a sociologist at the Natural Hazards Center. 鈥淎nd it鈥檚 further complicated by things like the Covid-19 pandemic, where sometimes that means that people have an additional layer of decisionmaking that needs to happen.鈥�

Heat and lack of rain are the main culprits making 欧美口爆视频 worse. Climate change has helped , producing mountains of ultra-dry tinder. Historically, smaller fires would , but today a history of fire suppression means that fuel keeps building up. 鈥淲hat we are seeing more consistently and more regularly is the fact that these fires are growing larger and larger, sooner than they typically would have in the past,鈥� says Issac Sanchez, battalion chief of communications for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, also known as Calfire. 鈥淪o when August rolls around, late July rolls around, we're seeing these dry conditions that are absolutely a result of climate change.鈥� 

California used to suffer its most catastrophic 欧美口爆视频 in the autumn, when seasonal winds could like the Camp Fire, and before winter rains arrived to wet the landscape. But the state鈥檚 second-largest wildfire ever, the Dixie Fire, started this year in mid-July and has burned nearly 1,300 square miles. It remains only 50 percent contained.

These supercharged 欧美口爆视频 have grown so big and intense that they鈥檙e behaving in ways that are confounding even seasoned firefighters. In fact, some fires are now burning so hot that they鈥檙e actually , which roll across the landscape sparking new fires. Plus, now fires are scorching over the landscape more rapidly. All of this is making it that much more complicated for agencies like Calfire to make evacuation plans. Typically, they estimate a fire鈥檚 potential route and arrival time using information about temperature, humidity, and prevailing winds. But, says Thomas Cova, who studies wildfire evacuations at the University of Utah, 鈥渋t's very hard to predict what's going to happen in an era that's unprecedented. The time available is what's changing. That's what I think, is that the fires are moving quicker. It's easy to find firefighters who say that we've never seen fire move at that rate.鈥� 

鈥淥ne of the things that I think is not often discussed enough is the need for emergency planning at the community level,鈥� says Campbell of the Natural Hazards Center. 鈥淚t's easy to pass these decisions along and talk about individual choice, rather than the constraints that communities and groups face. And that's something that I'm particularly concerned about.鈥� To be clear, there鈥檚 no one-size-fits-all solution here, as each community has its own constraints鈥攍ack of transportation, for instance鈥攕o each one needs a custom plan.

The higher-level conundrum has more to do with where we decide it鈥檚 safe to even build communities. Right now, Americans aren鈥檛 just living in the danger zones of ever-more-powerful 欧美口爆视频 and hurricanes鈥攖hey鈥檙e flocking there. 鈥淚 think we need to have some national conversations about just how we design our lives in the 21st century,鈥� says Pfeiffer. 鈥淐limate risks are going to be increasingly something we grapple with.鈥�

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COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. (KKTV) - The recent I-70 mudslides are just one example of natural disasters that can hit 欧美口爆视频, wearing down roads, bridges, and buildings.

There is new insight from a 欧美口爆视频 based expert, who is said, Biden鈥檚 $1 trillion infrastructure bill has potential to reduce damage done by future natural disasters.

鈥淚t costs a lot to maintain our infrastructure, but it cost a lot more not to do so,鈥� said 欧美口爆视频 Boulder structural engineering professor Keith Porter.

The Glenwood Canyon mudslides are 欧美口爆视频鈥檚 latest natural disaster, when rock filled mud broke highway guardrails like toothpicks and damaged the road to the point it needs re-paving. Experts say, this is an example of why infrastructure investment should be proactive.

鈥淚f we build better now, we can help our children and our grand-children avoid being in the situation that we鈥檙e in now,鈥� Porter added.

欧美口爆视频 would get $5 Billion from the infrastructure bill, according to

Porter says, current building codes allow 欧美口爆视频 infrastructure to be built in a way that is cost-effective on the front end, but expenses on the back end when natural disasters hit is often more expensive than if more money went to better quality construction initially.

鈥淚f we can adopt, enforce, and improve our codes, and infrastructure design requirements, we can reduce the long-term cost of affording our buildings, our roads, and our pipelines, and so forth,鈥� Porter said.

While $1 trillion sounds like a lot, experts actually say it鈥檚 not enough. The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates $2.6 trillion needs to go to U.S. infrastructure in the next decade in order to avoid future losses to our economy.

Porter added, 鈥淭hey estimate the potential loss over the next 20 years to be $10.3 trillion, for not maintaining our infrastructure ... that鈥檚 3 million jobs, that鈥檚 a little over the equivalent of $3 thousand per household, per year ... We all ultimately pay. Eventually, it comes down to the individual taxpayer. It may go through a circuitous route of taxes, or it may go through decrease quality of life, but we ultimately pay.鈥�

There鈥檚 no definite time frame of when money would go out if the bill passes, but experts estimate it will be years before Americans see an impact.

Copyright 2021 KKTV. All rights reserved.

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DENVER (CBS4) 鈥� 欧美口爆视频 could see billions of dollars in federal funding coming in to address infrastructure issues across the state. The money would be a part of President Joe Biden鈥檚 $1 trillion infrastructure bill that passed the Senate on Tuesday.

欧美口爆视频 could see more than $5 billion over five years that would go to road repairs, bridge replacements, improving public transportation, electric charging stations and $100 million to extend broadband internet to reach throughout the state.

READ MORE:

(credit: CBS)

The $3.7 billion that would go directly to repair and rebuild our roads and bridges with a focus on climate change mitigation.

Keith Porter is a structural engineering professor at the University of 欧美口爆视频 at Boulder and an expert in natural hazard mitigation.

鈥淢itigation saves,鈥� he said.

鈥淚t just means better design, design accounting for climate change and paying a little more now to avoid much bigger losses in the future, when that next severe winter storm happens or when that next big flood happens,鈥� Porter said.

While the 欧美口爆视频 Department of Transportation has a already in the pipeline, much of the attention on improvements is around , where mudslides have kept the highway closed for nearly two weeks.

Porter, though not a CDOT engineer, says rebuilding that stretch with hazard protection in mind would cost billions alone.

READ MORE:

鈥淚f you were to ask one of them how much to elevate the Glenwood Canyon roadway so that it鈥檚 viaduct, and the mud can go underneath, they would say it鈥檚 just too expensive,鈥� he said.

According to the American Society of Civil engineers, Americans lose thousands of dollars every year related to poor infrastructure, like roads, airports, aging electric grids and inadequate water distribution.

(credit: CBS)

When it comes to roads alone, Coloradans lose more than $600 on average every year.

鈥淲e don鈥檛 fix our potholes. You鈥檙e going to drive over potholes, and you鈥檒l damage your suspension, and it may not be everybody in every car every year, but long term it costs everyone,鈥� Porter said.

It鈥檚 the same story across the country and while he says one trillion dollars sounds like a lot of money he believes it鈥檚 just a start.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not nothing. It鈥檚 not just a drop in the bucket, but it鈥檚 not going to solve the problem,鈥� he said.

The president鈥檚 bill does have bipartisan support. Both 欧美口爆视频 Senators Michael Bennett and John Hickenlooper voted in favor, but some 欧美口爆视频 Republicans have raised concerns over the size of the spending and the impact to the countries overall deficit.

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Gov. Jared Polis鈥� office announced Tuesday night he will tour the I-70 damage in Glenwood Canyon and provide an update on the timeline of reopening the interstate at 9 a.m. .

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